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{{Short description|Electoral fraud in the United States of America}}
{{Short description|Electoral fraud in the United States of America}}
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{{use mdy dates|date=May 2021 | cs1-dates=ll }}
'''Electoral fraud in the United States''' is considered by most experts to be a very rare occurrence. In the last half-century, there have been [[Electoral_fraud_in_the_United_States#Notable_cases_(1948–present)|occasional examples]] of electoral fraud affecting [[Elections in the United States|United States elections]], mostly on the local level.<ref name="g098">{{cite web |last=Kessler |first=Glenn |date=2022-11-01 |title=The truth about election fraud: It’s rare |url=/proxy/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/01/truth-about-election-fraud-its-rare/ |url-status=live |archive-url=/proxy/https://archive.today/20231203030527/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/01/truth-about-election-fraud-its-rare/ |archive-date=2023-12-03 |access-date=2024-07-19 |website=Washington Post |quote=In the last half-century, there are only scattered examples of where election fraud appeared to have made a difference in the outcome. They often take place in races that attract relatively few voters and thus the impact of fraud could be greater.}}</ref><ref name="f642">{{cite web |date=2022-06-02 |title=Re-examining how and why voter fraud is exceedingly rare in the U.S. ahead of the 2022 midterms |url=/proxy/https://www.reuters.com/article/fact-check/re-examining-how-and-why-voter-fraud-is-exceedingly-rare-in-the-us-ahead-of-th-idUSL1N2XP2AI/ |access-date=2024-07-19 |website=Reuters |quote=This article aims to provide information and context on how voter fraud in the U.S. is not a 'widespread' issue, as some online commentators claim, but made exceedingly rare by existing safeguards.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=April 28, 2022 |title=G.O.P. Concocts Fake Threat: Voter Fraud by Undocumented Immigrants |url=/proxy/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/us/politics/gop-vote-fraud-immigrants.html |work=NYTimes |quote=Voter fraud is exceptionally rare, and allegations that widespread numbers of undocumented immigrants are voting have been repeatedly discredited.}}</ref>
'''Electoral fraud in the United States''' is considered by most experts to be a very rare occurrence. In the last half-century, there have been [[Electoral_fraud_in_the_United_States#Notable_cases_(1948–present)|occasional examples]] of electoral fraud affecting the outcome of [[Elections in the United States|United States elections]], mostly on the local level.<ref name="g098">{{cite web |last=Kessler |first=Glenn |date=2022-11-01 |title=The truth about election fraud: It’s rare |url=/proxy/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/01/truth-about-election-fraud-its-rare/ |url-status=live |archive-url=/proxy/https://archive.today/20231203030527/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/01/truth-about-election-fraud-its-rare/ |archive-date=2023-12-03 |access-date=2024-07-19 |website=Washington Post |quote=In the last half-century, there are only scattered examples of where election fraud appeared to have made a difference in the outcome. They often take place in races that attract relatively few voters and thus the impact of fraud could be greater.}}</ref>


Types of fraud include [[voter impersonation]] or in-person voter fraud, [[mail-in ballot|mail-in]] or [[absentee ballot]] fraud, illegal [[Noncitizen voting in the United States|voting by non-citizens]] and double voting. All of these are generally considered to be very rare, with some experts stating that mail-in voting is more vulnerable to fraud than voting in-person.<ref name="factcheck"/><ref name="x215"/><ref name="politico-mail"/><ref name="n968"/> Electoral fraud was significantly more prevalent in earlier United States history, particularly in the 19th and early 20th centuries.<ref name="a376">{{cite web | last=Blakemore | first=Erin | title=Voter fraud used to be rampant. Now it’s an anomaly. | website=National Geographic | date=2020-11-11 | url=/proxy/https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/voter-fraud-used-to-be-rampant-now-an-anomaly | access-date=2024-07-19}}</ref>
Types of fraud include [[voter impersonation]] or in-person voter fraud, [[mail-in ballot|mail-in]] or [[absentee ballot]] fraud, illegal [[Noncitizen voting in the United States|voting by non-citizens]] and double voting. All of these are generally considered to be very rare, with some experts stating that mail-in voting is more vulnerable to fraud than voting in-person.<ref name="factcheck"/><ref name="x215"/><ref name="politico-mail"/><ref name="n968"/> Electoral fraud was significantly more prevalent in earlier United States history, particularly in the 19th and early 20th centuries.<ref name="a376">{{cite web | last=Blakemore | first=Erin | title=Voter fraud used to be rampant. Now it’s an anomaly. | website=National Geographic | date=2020-11-11 | url=/proxy/https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/voter-fraud-used-to-be-rampant-now-an-anomaly | access-date=2024-07-19}}</ref>
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==Estimates of frequency==
==Estimates of frequency==
Electoral fraud is generally considered extremely rare in the United States.<ref name="f642">{{cite web |date=2022-06-02 |title=Re-examining how and why voter fraud is exceedingly rare in the U.S. ahead of the 2022 midterms |url=/proxy/https://www.reuters.com/article/fact-check/re-examining-how-and-why-voter-fraud-is-exceedingly-rare-in-the-us-ahead-of-th-idUSL1N2XP2AI/ |access-date=2024-07-19 |website=Reuters |quote=This article aims to provide information and context on how voter fraud in the U.S. is not a 'widespread' issue, as some online commentators claim, but made exceedingly rare by existing safeguards.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=April 28, 2022 |title=G.O.P. Concocts Fake Threat: Voter Fraud by Undocumented Immigrants |url=/proxy/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/us/politics/gop-vote-fraud-immigrants.html |work=NYTimes |quote=Voter fraud is exceptionally rare, and allegations that widespread numbers of undocumented immigrants are voting have been repeatedly discredited.}}</ref> Fraud is more likely to occur in and affect the outcome of small or local elections, where the potential impact of fraud can be larger.<ref name="g098"/><ref name="o450">{{cite web | last=Fessler | first=Pam | title='It's Partly On Me': GOP Official Says Fraud Warnings Hamper Vote-By-Mail Push | website=NPR | date=2020-05-15 | url=/proxy/https://www.npr.org/2020/05/15/856189149/it-s-partly-on-me-gop-official-says-fraud-warnings-hamper-vote-by-mail-push | access-date=2024-09-04 | quote=As many experts have said for years, Adams said instances of voter fraud are rare and more likely to be found in small, local races than in a statewide or national election.}}</ref><ref name="c056">{{cite web | title=The Nonexistent Link Between Mailed Ballots and Voter Fraud | website=Governing | date=2024-04-25 | url=/proxy/https://www.governing.com/politics/the-nonexistent-link-between-mailed-ballots-and-voter-fraud | access-date=2024-09-04 |quote=What the researchers did find, however, was that illegal voting was most prevalent in local races, where a small number of votes could alter the outcome. In other words, in the few instances where illegal voting happened, it was not in a presidential election — the contest that has been the focus of the attacks on mail voting by Trump’s base.}}</ref><ref name="c512">{{cite web | last=Fahrenthold | first=David A. | title=Selling votes is common type of election fraud | website=Washington Post | date=2012-10-02 | url=/proxy/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/selling-votes-is-common-type-of-election-fraud/2012/10/01/f8f5045a-071d-11e2-81ba-ffe35a7b6542_story.html | access-date=2024-09-04 | archive-url=/proxy/https://archive.is/gAlhV | archive-date=2020-11-14}}</ref>
===Voter impersonation===
===Voter impersonation===
Voter impersonation, or in-person voter fraud, is described as "very rare"<ref>{{Cite web |last=Tomsic |first=Michael |date=September 7, 2016 |title=Despite Court Ruling, Voting Rights Fight Continues In North Carolina |url=/proxy/https://www.npr.org/2016/09/07/493001761/despite-court-ruling-voting-rights-fight-continues-in-north-carolina |access-date=2017-05-14 |publisher=NPR |quote=Nationwide, voter fraud is also very rare. A law professor at the Loyola Law School in Los Angeles tracks claims of voter fraud. Of the more than 1 billion votes studied, he found only 31 credible cases of fraud. Despite the minimal risk, several other states have adopted stricter voting laws in recent years. A federal appeals court also struck down a voter ID requirement in Texas last month.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Liptak |first=Adam |author-link=Adam Liptak |date=2015-03-23 |title=Wisconsin Decides Not to Enforce Voter ID Law |url=/proxy/https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/24/us/supreme-court-rejects-challenge-to-wisconsin-voter-id-law.html |access-date=2017-05-14 |work=The New York Times |quote=The state said the law was needed to combat voter fraud. But cases of impersonation at the polls are very rare.}}</ref> and "extremely rare".<ref name=":9">{{Cite web |last=Selby |first=W. Gardner |date=March 17, 2016 |title="The fact is voter fraud is rampant.": Light a match to Greg Abbott's ridiculous claim about 'rampant voter fraud' |url=/proxy/http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2016/mar/17/greg-abbott/light-match-greg-abbotts-claim-about-rampant-voter/ |access-date=August 3, 2016 |website=PolitiFact |quote=Best we can tell, in-person voter fraud--the kind targeted by the ID law--remains extremely rare, which makes this claim incorrect and ridiculous.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Farley |first=Robert |date=2016-10-19 |title=Trump's Bogus Voter Fraud Claims |url=/proxy/http://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/trumps-bogus-voter-fraud-claims/ |access-date=2017-05-14 |work=FactCheck.org |quote=But is there? Many election experts say the kind of voter fraud Trump is talking about — voter impersonation — is extremely rare, and not enough to tip even a close presidential election. And there is plenty of research to back that up.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |author1=Ali Vitali |author2=Peter Alexander |author3=Kelly O'Donnell |date=2017-05-11 |title=Trump establishes vote fraud commission |url=/proxy/https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/11/trump-to-establish-vote-fraud-commission.html |access-date=2017-05-14 |publisher=CNBC |quote=The evidence that does exist, however, shows that voter fraud is extremely rare and that three million undocumented immigrants didn’t vote in the 2016 election.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |author=Jill Colvin |date=October 18, 2016 |title=Trump wrongly insists voter fraud is 'very, very common'; Donald Trump is insisting voter fraud does, indeed, pose a significant threat to the integrity of the U.S. electoral system |url=/proxy/https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2016-10-17/trump-wrongly-insists-voter-fraud-is-very-very-common |access-date=April 6, 2020 |work=U.S. News & World Report |quote=Most experts say voter fraud is extremely rare in the U.S., with one study by a Loyola Law School professor finding just 31 known cases of impersonation fraud out of 1 billion votes cast in U.S. elections between 2000 and 2014. |agency=Associated Press}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth |url=/proxy/https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/Briefing_Memo_Debunking_Voter_Fraud_Myth.pdf |access-date=June 22, 2021 |website=Brennan Center |quote=But putting rhetoric aside to look at the facts makes clear that fraud by voters at the polls is vanishingly rare, and does not happen on a scale even close to that necessary to “rig” an election.}}</ref>
Voter impersonation, or in-person voter fraud, is described as "very rare"<ref>{{Cite web |last=Tomsic |first=Michael |date=September 7, 2016 |title=Despite Court Ruling, Voting Rights Fight Continues In North Carolina |url=/proxy/https://www.npr.org/2016/09/07/493001761/despite-court-ruling-voting-rights-fight-continues-in-north-carolina |access-date=2017-05-14 |publisher=NPR |quote=Nationwide, voter fraud is also very rare. A law professor at the Loyola Law School in Los Angeles tracks claims of voter fraud. Of the more than 1 billion votes studied, he found only 31 credible cases of fraud. Despite the minimal risk, several other states have adopted stricter voting laws in recent years. A federal appeals court also struck down a voter ID requirement in Texas last month.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Liptak |first=Adam |author-link=Adam Liptak |date=2015-03-23 |title=Wisconsin Decides Not to Enforce Voter ID Law |url=/proxy/https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/24/us/supreme-court-rejects-challenge-to-wisconsin-voter-id-law.html |access-date=2017-05-14 |work=The New York Times |quote=The state said the law was needed to combat voter fraud. But cases of impersonation at the polls are very rare.}}</ref> and "extremely rare".<ref name=":9">{{Cite web |last=Selby |first=W. Gardner |date=March 17, 2016 |title="The fact is voter fraud is rampant.": Light a match to Greg Abbott's ridiculous claim about 'rampant voter fraud' |url=/proxy/http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2016/mar/17/greg-abbott/light-match-greg-abbotts-claim-about-rampant-voter/ |access-date=August 3, 2016 |website=PolitiFact |quote=Best we can tell, in-person voter fraud--the kind targeted by the ID law--remains extremely rare, which makes this claim incorrect and ridiculous.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Farley |first=Robert |date=2016-10-19 |title=Trump's Bogus Voter Fraud Claims |url=/proxy/http://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/trumps-bogus-voter-fraud-claims/ |access-date=2017-05-14 |work=FactCheck.org |quote=But is there? Many election experts say the kind of voter fraud Trump is talking about — voter impersonation — is extremely rare, and not enough to tip even a close presidential election. And there is plenty of research to back that up.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |author1=Ali Vitali |author2=Peter Alexander |author3=Kelly O'Donnell |date=2017-05-11 |title=Trump establishes vote fraud commission |url=/proxy/https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/11/trump-to-establish-vote-fraud-commission.html |access-date=2017-05-14 |publisher=CNBC |quote=The evidence that does exist, however, shows that voter fraud is extremely rare and that three million undocumented immigrants didn’t vote in the 2016 election.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |author=Jill Colvin |date=October 18, 2016 |title=Trump wrongly insists voter fraud is 'very, very common'; Donald Trump is insisting voter fraud does, indeed, pose a significant threat to the integrity of the U.S. electoral system |url=/proxy/https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2016-10-17/trump-wrongly-insists-voter-fraud-is-very-very-common |access-date=April 6, 2020 |work=U.S. News & World Report |quote=Most experts say voter fraud is extremely rare in the U.S., with one study by a Loyola Law School professor finding just 31 known cases of impersonation fraud out of 1 billion votes cast in U.S. elections between 2000 and 2014. |agency=Associated Press}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth |url=/proxy/https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/Briefing_Memo_Debunking_Voter_Fraud_Myth.pdf |access-date=June 22, 2021 |website=Brennan Center |quote=But putting rhetoric aside to look at the facts makes clear that fraud by voters at the polls is vanishingly rare, and does not happen on a scale even close to that necessary to “rig” an election.}}</ref>

Revision as of 14:53, 4 September 2024

Electoral fraud in the United States is considered by most experts to be a very rare occurrence. In the last half-century, there have been occasional examples of electoral fraud affecting the outcome of United States elections, mostly on the local level.[1]

Types of fraud include voter impersonation or in-person voter fraud, mail-in or absentee ballot fraud, illegal voting by non-citizens and double voting. All of these are generally considered to be very rare, with some experts stating that mail-in voting is more vulnerable to fraud than voting in-person.[2][3][4][5] Electoral fraud was significantly more prevalent in earlier United States history, particularly in the 19th and early 20th centuries.[6]

Electoral fraud has long been a significant topic in American political discourse. In recent years, false accusations of electoral fraud have often been linked to the election denial movement in the United States.[7]

Estimates of frequency

Electoral fraud is generally considered extremely rare in the United States.[8][9] Fraud is more likely to occur in and affect the outcome of small or local elections, where the potential impact of fraud can be larger.[1][10][11][12]

Voter impersonation

Voter impersonation, or in-person voter fraud, is described as "very rare"[13][14] and "extremely rare".[15][16][17][18][19]

Rutgers professor Lorraine Minnite has maintained that voter impersonation is illogical from the perspective of the perpetrator due to the high risk and limited upside of casting one vote.[20] If caught, perpetrators of voter impersonation can face up to 5 years in prison and a fine of up to $10,000 for citizens or deportation for non-citizens.[20] Proponents of voter identification laws, such as former Federal Election Commission member Hans von Spakovsky, have argued that it can be difficult to detect voter impersonation if voter ID is not required.[21][22][23] University of Virginia law professor Michael D. Gilbert agreed with Minnite in 2014 that theory and evidence suggest voter impersonation "rarely occurs", though agreed with voter ID proponents that "the failure to observe fraud does not mean that no fraud takes place". Gilbert noted that it is difficult for someone to coordinate widespread voter impersonation to steal an election, as even if they paid people to vote in-person for their preferred candidate, they could not confirm whether these people voted the way they were paid to.[24]

ABC News reported in 2012 that only four cases of voter impersonation had led to convictions in Texas over the previous decade.[20] A study released the same year by News21, an Arizona State University reporting project, identified a total of 10 cases of alleged voter impersonation in the United States between 2000 and 2012.[25] This analysis has, in turn, been criticized by the executive director of the Republican National Lawyers Association, who has said that the study was "highly flawed in its very approach to the issue."[26] Another 2012 study found no evidence that voter impersonation (in the form of people voting under the auspices of a dead voter) occurred in the 2006 Georgia general elections.[27]

In a 2013 study, the New York City Department of Investigation (DOI) sent investigators to vote under the names of 63 ineligible voters, who were either deceased, felons or had moved outside New York City. 61 of those investigators were allowed to illegally vote under their assumed identities. One of the two who was not allowed to vote was recognized by the mother of the felon they were impersonating, who worked at the polling place. In five instances, investigators in their 20s or 30s successfully posed as voters age 82 to 94. The DOI report stated that this result, while not large enough to be statistically significant, "indicates vulnerability in the system".[28][29]

In April 2014, Federal District Court Judge Lynn Adelman ruled in Frank v. Walker that Wisconsin's voter ID law was unconstitutional because "virtually no voter impersonation occurs in Wisconsin ...".[30] In August 2014, Loyola Law School professor Justin Levitt reported in the Washington Post's Wonkblog that he had identified only 31 credible cases of voter impersonation since 2000.[31][32] The most serious incident identified involved as many as 24 people trying to vote under assumed names in Brooklyn, which would still not have made a significant difference in most American elections.[33] A 2014 study in the Election Law Journal found that about the same percentage of the U.S. population (about 2.5%) admitted to having been abducted by aliens as admitted to committing voter impersonation.[34] In 2016, News21 reviewed cases of possible voter impersonation in five states where politicians had expressed concerns about it. They found 38 successful fraud cases in these states from 2012 to 2016, none of which were for voter impersonation.[35]

Mail-in ballot fraud

Mail-in ballot fraud is considered very rare, though some experts consider it more likely to occur than in-person voter fraud.[2][36][3]

Postal ballots have been the source of "most significant vote-counting disputes in recent decades", according to Edward Foley, director of the Election Law program at Ohio State University.[4] The New York Times wrote in 2012 that according to election administrators, fraud in voting by mail was "far less common than innocent errors" but "vastly more prevalent" than in-person voting fraud.[5] University of Chicago political scientist Anthony Fowler said in 2020 that with mail-in ballots, "it could be easier for someone to fraudulently vote on behalf of someone else or for someone to tamper with ballots" and "one might be more concerned about coercion or vote buying", but that in practice, "voter fraud is very rare, and the risk of widespread fraud is probably very minimal, even with all-mail elections".[3]

Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola Marymount, has stated "misconduct in the mail voting process is meaningfully more prevalent than misconduct in the process of voting in person", but that misconduct "still amounts to only a tiny fraction of the ballots cast by mail".[2] Lonna Atkeson, an expert in election administration, said about mail-in voting fraud, "It's really hard to find ... The fact is, we really don't know how much fraud there is ... There aren't millions of fraudulent votes, but there are some."[2] Lorraine Minnite, a professor at Rutgers University says “my sense is that it is not much more frequent than in-person voter fraud, which rarely occurs.”[2] Richard Hasen, a professor at University of California, Irvine School of Law, said in 2020 that "problems are extremely rare in the five states that rely primarily on vote-by-mail."[2]

An analysis by News21 found 491 known cases of absentee ballot fraud between 2000 and 2012.[2][37][38][39] In April 2020, a voter fraud study covering 20 years by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found the level of mail-in ballot fraud "exceedingly rare" since it occurs only in "0.00006 percent" of individual votes nationally, and, in one state, "0.000004 percent — about five times less likely than getting hit by lightning in the United States."[36] A 2020 Washington Post analysis of data from three vote-by-mail states (Colorado, Oregon and Washington), with help from the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC), found that officials had identified just 372 possible cases of double voting or voting on behalf of deceased people out of about 14.6 million mail votes cast in 2016 and 2018.[40]

Organized absentee ballot fraud has caused isolated elections to be invalidated by courts.[41][42][43]

Non-citizen voting

Illegal non-citizen voting is considered very rare.[44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53] This is due in part to the more severe penalties associated with the practice including deportation, incarceration or fines, as well as the jeopardizing of naturalization efforts.[54]

A Brennan Center for Justice study of 2016 data from 42 jurisdictions found an estimated 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting out of 23.5 million votes cast (or .0001% of all votes cast).[54][55] A 2024 search of a The Heritage Foundation database that includes a "sampling" of voter fraud cases brought by prosecutors found 85 non-citizen cases listed since 1979, in a period when 2 billion votes were cast.[56] San Francisco State University professor and non-citizen voting expert Ron Hayduk referred to non-citizen voting as a "problem that doesn't exist".[46][57] In an audit of the 2016 elections, the North Carolina State Board of Elections found that 41 out of 4.8 million total votes were by non-citizens.[58]

University of California, Irvine law professor Richard Hasen wrote in 2012 that "Noncitizen voting is a real, if small, problem ... Unlike impersonation fraud, noncitizen voting cannot be dismissed as a Republican fantasy". He pointed to a 1996 congressional race in California where a congressional investigation found several hundred non-citizens who had voted.[59][60][61] The Washington Post stated there was "scattered evidence" of non-citizen voting and little to support the idea that it ever affected the outcome of a major election, but that the scarcity of evidence "does not necessarily prove that the phenomenon does not happen".[56]

The federal form to register a voter requires a unique identification number such as a Social Security or driver's license number, but it does not require proof of citizenship. New voters are only required to check a box attesting that they are a citizen.[62][63] The process of verifying the citizenship of voters varies by state, and not all states conduct verification.[62] Some prominent Republicans have speculated that non-citizen voting is a threat for this reason, though claims of widespread non-citizen voting have been unsupported by evidence.[63][64][65][66] Several Republican-led states have flagged and removed small numbers of purported non-citizens from voter rolls.[44] These processes have in turn been criticized by voting rights organizations for erroneously impacting legal voters, particularly naturalized citizens.[67][68][69]

In the 2018 Fish v. Kobach case, where Kansas voters challenged the state's voter identification law, U.S. District Court Judge Julie Robinson ruled that the law was unconstitutional, in part because Secretary of State Kris Kobach had not shown that illegal non-citizen voting was widespread enough to justify it. She wrote that "at most, 67 noncitizens registered or attempted to register in Kansas over the last 19 years".[70] Judge Robinson noted that 400 individuals in Kobach's Election Voter Information System had "birth dates after their date of registration, indicating they registered to vote before they were born", and concluded that the 67 noncitizen cases were consistent with administrative error.[71]

In 2023, Old Dominion University professor Jesse Richman examined Arizona state voter and DMV files as an expert witness for a court case. Richman said that he found 1,934 registered voters out of more than 4 million whose records indicated they were non-citizens at the time of registration or afterward. He also examined data from the 2022 Cooperative Election Study, and estimated that just under 1% of non-citizens had registered to vote. U.S. District Judge Susan R. Bolton wrote in her ruling on the case that "the Court found Dr. Richman’s testimony credible and affords his opinions considerable weight."[56] Richman had previously conducted a 2014 study with David Earnest which claimed that 6.4% of noncitizens had voted in 2008 and 2.2% in 2010,[72][73] however this study was criticized by other researchers, who said that the data set was too small to be useful and that some of it appeared to be misclassified.[56][74][75][76] After the 2016 elections, Richman rebuked Donald Trump's claims that millions of non-citizens had voted.[77][undue weight?discuss]

Double voting

Double voting is extremely rare.[78][79][80] Double voting within the same state is often inadvertent, for example if a voter erroneously thinks their absentee ballot will not be delivered in time.[81] As of 2023, the only system that can detect double voting across states is the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC), which close to half of states participate in.[82] Being registered to vote in multiple states without voting in more than one is legal.[83] The legal definition of double voting varies between states.[84]

A study of voter data from the 2012 presidential election published in the American Political Science Review estimated that around 1 in 4,000 voters illegally cast two ballots, though an audit suggested the rate could be lower due to record errors.[85] The study found that a number of possible cases of double voting come from when poll workers mistakenly mark someone as having voted when they have not.[78] Researchers concluded that when two voter records share the same name and birthdate, removing the earlier registration could impede approximately 300 legitimate votes for each double vote prevented.[85]

In 2004, the New York Daily News reported that it had found 46,000 voters who were registered in both New York City and Florida, and that between 400 and 1,000 of those voters had illegally voted twice.[86][further explanation needed] The Chicago Tribune noted that the prevalence of duplicate voter registrations in Florida before the 2004 elections led its secretary of state Glenda Hood to request help from the FBI in preventing double voting.[87]

Outdated voter registration

Outdated voter registration has not been linked to voter fraud despite allegations connecting the two.[88]

A 2012 report by the Pew Center on the States titled "Inaccurate, Costly, and Inefficient: Evidence That America's Voter Registration System Needs an Upgrade", based on data collected in 2008, found that over 1.8 million dead people were registered to vote nationwide and over 3 million voters were registered in multiple states.[89] Pew's election program director clarified in 2016 that they had found "millions of out of date registration records due to people moving or dying", but "no evidence that voter fraud resulted".[88] According to PolitiFact, the study investigated "outdated voter rolls, not fraudulent votes", and made "no mention of noncitizens voting or registering to vote".[88]

Pew researchers found that military personnel were disproportionately affected by voter registration errors. Most often these involved members of the military and their families who were deployed overseas. For example, in 2008 alone, they reported almost "twice as many registration problems" as the general public.[90]: 7 In an October 2016 Associated Press fact-check, the author noted these voter registration irregularities left some people concerned that the electoral system was vulnerable to the impersonation of dead voters. However, voter rolls with dead voters are usually due to the states being slow to eliminate dead voters. By 2016, most states had addressed concerns raised by the Pew 2012 report.[91]

A 2004 analysis by The Chicago Tribune that compared voter rolls with Social Security Administration death claims found that more than 181,000 dead voters were on voter rolls across six swing states, including 64,889 in Florida and 50,051 in Michigan.[87]

Early history

1872 depiction of electoral fraud in Philadelphia.

Electoral fraud was more prevalent in the United States during the 19th and early 20th centuries, when safeguards against fraud and electioneering were considerably weaker, and political machines wielded significantly more power. Political parties would produce their own ballots, and as of the mid-19th century, seven states still conducted elections by voice voting. States only began to adopt the secret ballot in the 1880s and 1890s.[6]

Voter fraud was so common that it developed its own vocabulary. "Colonizers" were groups of bought voters who moved en masse between wards. "Floaters" were voters who cast ballots for multiple parties. "Repeaters" were voters who voted multiple times, sometimes in disguise.[92]

A notable example of fraud during this time was the Democratic Tammany Hall machine in New York City, which encouraged residents to vote multiple times by shaving their beards, registered voters under fake names, and physically intimidated voters. Party bosses also granted citizenship to newly arrived immigrants. According to University of Chicago professor John Mark Hansen, cheating also regularly occurred in suburban and rural areas. Voter fraud and suppression against African-Americans was common in the Jim Crow South.[6]

In the 1876 United States presidential election between Republican Rutherford B. Hayes and Democrat Samuel J. Tilden, voter fraud was widespread, with South Carolina reporting an impossible 101 percent turnout. Violence and intimidation by Democrats against Black Republican voters also occurred. In four contested states, Republicans and Democrats filed separate tallies favoring their respective candidates. The election was ultimately decided by the Congress-appointed Electoral Commission in favor of Hayes.[93]

In the 1888 United States presidential election, there was evidence of voter fraud in some states that favored Republican Benjamin Harrison, particularly in his home state of Indiana.[94] Public backlash contributed to the implementation of secret ballots nationwide.[92] Two races in the 1888 United States House of Representatives elections were also annulled due to fraud. Democrat Barnes Compton was initially elected in Maryland, but his Republican opponent Sydney E. Mudd contested the election the following year alleging fraud, and the investigating committee ruled in favor of Mudd.[95] Arkansas Republican John M. Clayton lost to Democrat Clifton R. Breckinridge after masked men stole a ballot box with a large majority of Clayton votes. Clayton was assassinated the following year while challenging the election, but was posthumously declared the winner.[96]

Cooping, a form of electoral fraud where people were kidnapped, drugged and forced to repeatedly vote, is thought to have contributed to the October 1849 death of Edgar Allan Poe.[97][98]

Notable cases (1948–present)

Electoral fraud has led to several convictions in modern United States history, and has caused some election results to be affected or annulled. This list does not include elections such as the 1960 United States presidential election in Illinois[99] or the 2008 United States Senate election in Minnesota[100][101] where allegations of fraud received widespread attention, but were not definitively proven.

20th century

21st century

Public perception

A 2016 nationwide poll published in the Washington Post found that 84% of Republicans, 75% of independents and 52% of Democrats believed that a "meaningful amount" of fraud occurred in United States elections.[124] A 2022 poll by the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley found that 39% of California voters thought illegal voting was a "major threat" to state elections, and 21% thought it was a "minor threat".[125] A series of Monmouth polls conducted between 2020 and 2023 found that 29%–32% of Americans believed the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent.[126]

A June 2021 poll by the Texas Tribune and University of Texas found that 19% of Texas voters think that ineligible people frequently cast ballots.[127] A July 2021 poll published by NPR found that more Americans were concerned about ensuring everyone who wants to vote can cast a ballot (56%) versus ensuring that nobody who is ineligible votes (41%).[128] 90% of Democrats said access was more important versus 75% of Republicans who said stopping ineligible voting was more important.[128]

Perception gap

Flawed research is one factor that can widen a gap in perception that significant voter fraud has occurred between supporters of the candidate that lost an election and the supporters of a candidate that won.[129] False claims of fraud have lowered overall levels of trust in elections.[130]

Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy suggests that political elites, right-wing media organizations and well-funded nonprofits promote the narrative of electoral fraud out of political or financial self-interest that taps into political paranoia that he traces to McCarthyism, the great replacement and the deep state.[131] Jon Schwarz lists examples of false voter fraud claims from Republicans going back decades.[132]

The New York Times cites the loosening of content moderation on social media by early 2024 as a driver in beliefs about conspiracy theories including those around election fraud, including YouTube which said it would stop removing false voter fraud claims before the election. Autocracies like Russia and China have been using disinformation aided by artificial intelligence to try to elect more authoritarian leaders in democracies around the world.[133]

Consequences

Political violence and threats

The belief that an election was not legitimate can lead in extreme cases to political violence such as the January 6 attacks and threats against election workers.[47][134] As of 2024, 4 in 10 election workers had experienced threats, harassment and abuse.[135] In some jurisdictions, election workers will count votes in more secure locations in 2024 compared to 2020.[136]

Impact on elections

Democrats and voting rights advocates have argued that the rhetoric around illegal voting is not a sincere effort to address voter fraud, but is designed to increase voter turnout of the GOP base,[137] and may in some cases hope to lay the groundwork for overturning election results.[135] Voting rights advocates have also expressed concern that the rhetoric about noncitizen voting could have a deterrent effect on Latinos and naturalized immigrants trying to vote.[137]

In 2024, the Republican National Committee launched a swing state initiative to mobilize thousands of poll watchers, poll workers and attorneys to act as "election integrity" watchdogs. The party will deploy monitors to observe every step of the election process, create hotlines for poll watchers to report perceived problems and escalate issues through legal action.[138][136]

Donald Trump voter fraud claims

2016 presidential election

President Donald Trump claimed without evidence that between 3 and 5 million people cost him the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by voting illegally.[139] He claimed that he narrowly lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016 in New Hampshire (and that Senator Kelly Ayotte also lost her bid for re-election in New Hampshire) because thousands of people were illegally bused there from Massachusetts.[140] There is no evidence to support Trump's claims, which the New Hampshire Attorney General's Office determined were unfounded.[141][142]

CNN reported in January of 2017 that Trump had based his fraud voter claims on information from Gregg Phillips.[143][144] While members of Trump's cabinet and family were registered to vote in multiple states, this was considered to be oversight, not fraud.[145] In response to Trump's allegations, on February 10, Ellen L. Weintraub, the Federal Election Commission (FEC) Commissioner, requested that Trump provide evidence of the "thousands of felony criminal offenses under New Hampshire law".[146] In a CNN interview on February 12, Stephen Miller was unable at that time to support claims of voter fraud as evidence.[147][140] There is no evidence to support Trump's assertion that there was substantial voter fraud in the 2016 election.

Voter fraud commission (2017)

President Trump signing the Executive Order establishing the Voter Fraud Commission

On May 11, 2017, Trump signed an executive order to establish a voter fraud commission to conduct an investigation into voter fraud.[148] He had announced his intention to create the commission on January 25.[139] The commission's chairman was Vice President Mike Pence with Kris Kobach as vice chairman.[148] Kobach, who is the Secretary of State of Kansas, called for stricter voter ID laws in the United States.[149][150] Kobach claims there is a voter fraud crisis in the United States.[151][152][153][154][155] Trump's creation of the commission was criticized by voting rights advocates, scholars and experts, and newspaper editorial boards as a pretext for, and prelude to, voter suppression.[156][157][158][159][160]

In January 2018, Trump abruptly disbanded the commission,[161] which met only twice.[162] The commission found no evidence of widespread voter fraud in the United States.[161][162]

2020 presidential election

During the 2020 presidential campaign, Trump indicated in Twitter posts, interviews and speeches that he might refuse to recognize the outcome of the election if he were defeated; Trump falsely suggested that the election would be rigged against him.[163][164][165] Trump repeatedly claimed that "the only way" he could lose would be if the election was "rigged" and repeatedly refused to commit to a peaceful transition of power after the election.[166][167] Trump also attacked mail-in voting throughout the campaign, falsely claiming that the practice contained high rates of fraud.[168][169][170] In September 2020, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, a Trump appointee, testified under oath that the FBI has "not seen, historically, any kind of coordinated national voter fraud effort in a major election, whether it's by mail or otherwise."[171]

In the lead-up to the election, citing fraud concerns, Republicans filed lawsuits in several states seeking to limit the use of mail-in voting,[172] and prepared to challenge individual mail-in ballots.[173] Republican election lawyer Benjamin Ginsberg criticized his party for this in a November 1, 2020 Washington Post op-ed, writing that over the last four decades, "Republicans found only isolated instances of fraud", and that "Proof of systematic fraud has become the Loch Ness Monster of the Republican Party. People have spent a lot of time looking for it, but it doesn’t exist".[174]

Number of Trump electoral fraud claims between elections.[175]

After most of the major news organizations declared Biden the President-elect on November 7,[176][177][178][179] Trump refused to accept his loss, declaring "this election is far from over" and alleging election fraud without providing evidence.[180] Multiple lawsuits alleging electoral fraud were filed by the Trump campaign, all of which were dismissed as having no merit.[181] Republican officials questioned the legitimacy of the election and aired conspiracy theories regarding various types of alleged fraud.[182][183] In early 2021, motivated by the claims of widespread voter fraud and the resulting legitimacy crisis among the Republican base, GOP lawmakers in a number of states initiated a push to make voting laws more restrictive.[184]

In December of 2021, the Associated Press released a detailed fact-check which found fewer than 475 instances of voter fraud out of an estimated 25 million votes cast in the six battleground states.[185] They involved both Democrats and Republicans and were almost always caught before the votes were counted.[186][187][188][189] While some seemed intentional, others involved involved clerical error or voter confusion.[186]

2024 presidential election

In the 2024 Republican New Hampshire primary, Trump repeated false claims that from other states voted in the primary.[134]

According to the New York Times, Trump escalated the use of "rigged election" and "election interference" statements in advance of the 2024 election compared to the previous two elections. The statements were described as part of a "heads I win; tails you cheated" rhetorical strategy.[175]

An August 2024 poll found that 17% of Americans are not prepared to accept the outcome of the 2024 election and that two-thirds of Americans do not believe Trump is prepared to accept the outcome.[190] 34% of survey respondents lack confidence that votes will be tallied correctly.[190]

Prevention

Voter ID laws

Voter ID laws by state, as of April 2022:
  Photo ID required (strict)
  Photo ID requested (non-strict)
  Non-photo ID required (strict)
  Non-photo ID requested (non-strict)
  No ID required to vote

In the United States, voter ID laws (laws requiring identification to vote) have been enacted in 36 states as of 2024.[191] They have been promoted by largely Republican politicians since 2010 with the stated aim of preventing voter impersonation.[20][24] Some laws have been struck down in court as an undue burden.[191]

Voter ID requirements are generally popular among Americans, though they are also a divisive issue.[192][193] Critics of voter ID laws have argued that they depress turnout by lawful voters under the pretense of addressing voter fraud, which is quite rare.[191][24] Americans who have lower incomes, are younger or transgender are less likely to have an updated ID.[191][194]

Proof of citizenship

In July 2024, the United States House of Representatives passed the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, which would mandate that Americans show proof of citizenship when registering to vote. It is considered unlikely to become law due to opposition from the Democratic Party and a 2013 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that deemed it illegal to require additional citizenship documentation in order to register to vote.[195][196] In August 2024, the Supreme Court allowed Arizona to enforce a law requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote, pending appeal.[197]

Signature verification

Signature verification is carried out by a majority of states in order to prevent forged paper ballots. According to the Election Administration and Voting Survey, 27.5% of rejected absentee ballots in 2016[198] and 15.8% of rejected mail-in ballots in 2018[199] were due to signature mismatches. Tossing ballots due to signature mismatches can depend on the method of signature verification used.[200] As of 2024, 31 states conduct signature verification on returned absentee or mail-in ballots. Nine states do not conduct signature verification, but require the signature of either a witness, two witnesses, or a notary. Ten states and Washington, D.C. neither conduct signature verification nor require a witness signature.[201]

Mississippi is the only state to both conduct signature verification and require a witness signature (in this case, a notary).[201] Four states (Arkansas, Georgia, Minnesota and Ohio) additionally require either a copy of the voter’s ID or a voter identification number.[201]

Election audits

As of 2024, 48 states conduct some type of post-election audit, which check if the equipment and procedures used to count votes worked properly, and detect discrepancies using a hand count of paper records. The two exceptions are Alabama and New Hampshire, both of which nonetheless piloted different audit types in 2022. The type and scope of audit significantly varies between states.[202]

Voter roll management

Voter roll purges

Voter caging is the process of challenging the voter registration status of someone who is registered to vote. It often involves sending that person a postcard to the address on file and removing the voter if they do not respond within a certain time period.[203] The practice can be controversial with some civil rights groups saying that some states use it to target voters of a particular political party and is sometimes done right before an election to make voting more difficult.[204]

Interstate databases

The Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program was a database established in 2005 and run by Kansas that compared voting records across multiple states to prevent double voting. At least 28 states opted into the program, but academics and several states found that it returned high rates of false positives that would disenfranchise legal voters. Some states left as a result.[205] In 2017, the program was put on hold after the Department of Homeland Security discovered security vulnerabilities. In 2019, the program was indefinitely suspended as part of a settlement of a class-action lawsuit filed by the American Civil Liberties Union.[206]

In 2012, the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC) was established with a goal of improving the accuracy of voter rolls through comparisons between states.[207] At its peak, 33 states and the District of Columbia were members.[208] Beginning in 2022, nine Republican-led states left ERIC. States cited complaints about governance issues, including that ERIC mailed newly eligible voters who had not yet registered ahead of federal elections, and that it had become subject to alleged partisan influence.[209][210] ERIC was the subject of repeated false claims from allies of Donald Trump that it was a voter registration vehicle for Democrats. Several states that left ERIC subsequently created their own partnerships.[207][209][210]

References

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